In light of the tremendous mess that the Biden administration and the Democrats have made of the economy, foreign policy, the border issue, and other matters, it appears like the Republicans are in the driver’s seat heading into the midterm elections and the beginning of the 2024 presidential race.
Despite the fact that some polls indicate that this is the case, other surveys indicate that the majority of Americans wonder if they would be better off with Republicans in charge.
McKenna from the Daily Caller examines the generic ballot. “Are you planning to vote for the Republican or the Democrat candidate in 2022?”
Currently, the generic ballot replies range from plus 4 percentage points for the Democrats (Politico) to plus 8 percentage points for the Republicans (Rasmussen). The average, which should be avoided since it is statistically unsound, is 1.9% for the Republicans.
Constantly, some perspective is required. In 1994, the Republicans did 6 percentage points higher than the Democrats in terms of total votes cast for House contests (51.5 percent to 45 percent). In 2010, they performed similarly (51.3 percent to 44.7 percent ).
The narrowness of the advantage on the generic ballot is an anomaly. All available polling data shows that the Democrats are in trouble due to the national mood, inflation and economic concerns, and Team Biden’s general lack of hope.
According to the facts, he argues, Republicans must demonstrate to the people that their plan would restore the United States, as opposed to simply reversing the issues.
Let’s take a look at one study, maybe the finest of the group thus far, that highlights the difficulty Republicans face. ABC/Washington Post conducted a national poll of 907 registered voters at the end of April. Inflation (plus 19), crime (plus 12), and the economy (plus 14) all favored the Republicans, but the president’s approval rating plummeted as expected (minus 10).
This is consistent with virtually every other survey undertaken since the calamity in Afghanistan. Despite this, respondents only awarded the Republicans a one-point edge in the generic congressional ballot, a figure that is both noteworthy and consistent with other surveys of public opinion.
Or, maybe you’re a Harvard guy. In late June, the Harvard/Harris team polled 1,308 registered voters. Seventy percent of respondents believe we are on the wrong road; eighty-eight percent believe we are or will soon be in a recession; President Joe Biden’s popularity rating is net negative (20 points). Despite this, the vote was split 50-50 on the generic ballot issue.
More on this story via The Republic Brief:
These results are consistent with other lots of opinion research executed over the last few months, which consistently indicates voters identify both the economy and president as failing enterprises. At the same time, voters seem unwilling to commit fully to changing congressional horses, as the generic ballot results bounce around both the margin of error and the centerline.
He notes that it is interesting that voters are not convinced anyone else can do better than the feeble administration that currently presides over the White House.
What they are uncertain about is whether giving Republicans control of congress will make it any better. One can hardly blame them. The Republicans have, for the most part, steadfastly refused to indicate what they might do if given control of the legislative branch, and have, in the last few years, shown an alarming and enduring preference for an adolescent obsession with social media rather than a willingness to engage on the substance of policy. CONTINUE READING…