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    Democrats Could Face An Army Of ‘Submerged Voters’ In The Midterms, Pollster Says

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    Due to a large number of difficult-to-track voters, Democrats will certainly face more political resistance at the polls than they had anticipated.

    Robert C. Cahaly, the head pollster at the Trafalgar Group, claims that President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party’s recent attacks on Conservatives are inspiring a sizable coalition of hard-to-poll Americans to support the Republican Party in the midterm elections.

    “If the election were tomorrow, Republicans should feel extremely optimistic,”  Cahaly told the Daily Caller. “How should they feel in six weeks? There is a lot that can happen in that much time. But for right now, they should feel extremely optimistic.”

    In a conversation on Twitter posted on Saturday, Cahaly referred to this new demographic as “submerged voters.” According to Cahaly’s tweet, these voters will be much more difficult to poll than they were in past elections when left-wing attacks prompted supporters of former President Donald Trump to stay away from political polls but not the voting booth.

    They were reluctant to discuss politics in public after former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton referred to 2016 supporters of former President Donald Trump as “Deplorables” and other derogatory terms. He referred to them as “shy Trump voter.”

    Cahaly told the Daily Caller that because pollsters failed to capture these “shy” voters in 2016, the public began to lose faith in political polling, forcing them to adapt their questioning techniques in 2018. He tweeted that these formerly “shy” voters transformed into the millions of “hidden voters” who once again astounded pollsters in 2020 when the attacks were used as tools to cancel or doxx everyone who disagreed with the progressive viewpoint at the time.

    The aggressive actions by the U.S. Justice Department against “MAGA Republicans” and Biden’s recent speech in which he demonized Trump supporters in front of a red-stained White House while flanked by two active-duty U.S. Marines in uniform will further bury these “submerged voters,” according to Cahaly. He tweeted, “They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls.”

    “At this point, I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate. The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these ‘submerged voters,” Cahaly writes in a tweet.

    “I think that effect will be even more amplified with Biden labeling certain voters as people who are threats to the country. With the labeling that he has provided, a lot of voters are very, very nervous,” he stated to the Daily Caller.

    According to a Trafalgar Group poll conducted from September 2–5 in conjunction with the Convention of States Action, Biden’s comments during his White House speech were a political setback for the Democrats.

    Nearly 57% of potential voters told Trafalgar thought Biden’s speech was  “a dangerous escalation in rhetoric and [was] designed to incite conflict amongst Americans.”  According to the survey, only 35.5% of respondents thought it was “acceptable campaign messaging that is to be expected in an election year.”

    Over 58% of Americans told Trafalgar that Biden’s time in government divided the country, while just 20% said he had been a unifier. This indicates that the public’s perception of whether Biden has united or divided the country in his almost two years in office is likewise unfavorable.

    According to Cahaly, voter turnout will likely be higher than average for midterm elections, measuring “between between 2018’s turnout and 2020.” However, because of the attacks on Conservative voters, pollsters will find it more difficult to estimate with accuracy how large a voting bloc these “submerged voters” will be, much like how pollsters were taken by surprise by the more than 150 million votes cast in 2020.

    According to pollster John Couvillon of JMC Analytics, the fact that more Republicans than Democrats turned out to vote during the primary election is “a favorable indicator” for the GOP. In 2022, Republican voters made up 52% of primary voters, compared to 48% of voters who supported Democratic candidates.

    According to the number of people that participated in the primary elections, Couvillon’s analysis of voter turnout illustrates how elections tend to favor each party. According to the survey, the party that had a bigger primary turnout does better on election day in November.

    More on this story via The Daily Caller. CONTINUE READING…

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