The release of U.S. intelligence documents exposes Western disinformation regarding the “probable” victory of the Ukraine in the conflict.
Someone who has only seen coverage of the Ukraine war in Western media was alarmed by a headline in The Washington Post last week: “U.S. doubts Ukraine counteroffensive will yield big gains, leaked document says.”
In essence, what the mainstream media has reported about Ukraine has been a false narrative, suggesting that Ukraine is winning the war and is about to initiate an offensive that will result in a decisive victory. According to the story, Western audiences have been misled about the course of the conflict by the media.
In the second paragraph of the article, it is made abundantly obvious that the leaked documents demonstrate unequivocally that the much-anticipated Ukrainian offensive will be a total failure — “a marked departure from the Biden administration’s public statements about the vitality of Ukraine’s military.”
As reported by The Washington Post, the leaks are likely to “embolden critics who feel the United States and NATO should do more to push for a negotiated settlement to the conflict.”
The relevant procedure has already begun. Former State Department officials Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, note in a Foreign Affairs article that “it is difficult to feel optimistic about the future of the war.”
In “The West Needs a New Strategy in Ukraine: A Plan for Getting From the Battlefield to the Negotiating Table,” they state the following:
“The best path forward is a sequenced two-pronged strategy aimed at first bolstering Ukraine’s military capability and then, when the fighting season winds down late this year, ushering Moscow and Kyiv from the battlefield to the negotiating table.”
“The article does not mention the leaks, though it was published after the disclosures made clear that the Ukrainian offensive, intended to break through Russia’s land bridge to Crimea, would fail,” according to a Zero Hedge report.
The article is filled with the usual claims that Ukraine has superior “operational skill” than Russia and that the war will end in a “stalemate.” It represents an emerging strategy in the West, namely that before negotiating, Ukraine must launch an offensive to regain some territory, “imposing heavy losses on Russia, closing Moscow’s military options, and increasing its willingness to consider a diplomatic settlement.”
However, this is a lofty order. Moscow is unlikely to negotiate at the conclusion of the Ukrainian offensive, given that the article acknowledges the “numerical superiority of the Russian military” and that Ukraine faces “growing constraints on both its own manpower and foreign assistance.”
One month after Moscow’s intervention in Ukraine, Moscow was prepared to reach an agreement with Kiev, but the West, which is determined to prolong the conflict in order to undermine Russia, thwarted the negotiations. Why would Moscow accept a deal now, when Ukraine is at its weakest and Russia is positioned to make significant battlefield gains, when Ukraine is at its weakest?
According to the Foreign Affairs article, “This diplomatic gambit may well fail. Even if Russia and Ukraine continue to take significant losses, one or both of them may prefer to keep fighting.”
“Come the end of this fighting season,” as it is stated in the article, “the United States and Europe will also have good reason to abandon their stated policy of supporting Ukraine for ‘as long as it takes,’ as U.S. President Joe Biden has put it.”
How will the situation evolve from here? What is required to get there? “NATO allies would initiate a strategic dialogue with Russia on arms control and the European security architecture as a whole.”
“Incredibly this is what Russia was asking for before its February 2022 intervention and it was rebuffed by NATO and the U.S. Now a Foreign Affairs article is recommending it,” Zero Hedge continued in its commentary.
Exists no other indication that Ukraine has lost this war?
More on this story via The Republic Brief:
The strategy of Ukraine going ahead with an offensive it knows will achieve little is Kiev’s last gasp — unless delusional neocons continue to outmaneuver the realists in Washington. CONTINUE READING…